Economic and Resource Potential of the «Lublin Triangle» and Prospects of Activity in the Transport and Logistics Sector

in particular, the need to substantiate breakthrough measures regarding the country's subject participation in the system of the international division of labor in the conditions of post-war development. One of these particularly effective measures can be the stimulation of the transformation of the «Lublin triangle» alliance, founded by Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine, into a multilateral international integration organization (with the possible subsequent addition to the alliance of certain countries of the Central and Eastern European subregion; primarily Slovakia, Latvia and Estonia). The article provides a generalized analysis of the economic and resource potential of the «Lublin triangle» in the context of the correlation of its main macroeconomic indicators with the corresponding indicators of the European Union. The priority areas of cooperation of the founding countries of the «Lublin Triangle» are determined according to the sector. The proposal to create a transport-logistics cluster on the basis of the alliance in the composition of the specified six countries as the most effective and promising form of cooperation is justified. The essential features of such a cluster are its «embeddedness» in the pan-European network of transport corridors and transport-logistics hubs, which should cover the «junction-intersections» of passenger and cargo flows on the territory of all participating countries (initial proposals for the geographical location of hubs on the territory of six countries are given). The identification of derived institutional, organizational-economic, and technical-technological parameters of such a transport-logistics cluster is supplemented by a proposal regarding the expediency of working out the measures for its creation to be carried out in the context of the development and implementation of the «Marshall Plan for Ukraine».

of interstate regional entities problem in general and issues of East European cooperation were laid by one of the pillars of the modern American political establishment, the most famous statesman and political scientist Z. Brzeziński.One of his main scientific works «The Grand Chessboard.American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives», is devoted to this problem; it thoroughly examines aspects of international regionalism in what Brzeziński believes is the main part of the world -Eurasia.He defines it as «The Grand Chessboard» [1, p. 31].In this context, geopolitical axes (Ukraine, Azerbaijan, South Korea, Turkey, and Iran) are highlighted) [1, p. 41].At the same time, Brzeziński quite justifiably highlights the role of Eastern Europe.His research proceeds from the quoted message of H. Mackinder: «The one who rules Eastern Europe, they own the center of the Earth, ... they own the World» [1, p. 38].Under certain conditions, according to Z. Brzeziński, Poland can also become a geopolitical axis [1, p. 44 -46].A great role in the development of Eurasian processes was also attributed to the Baltic countries [1, p. 69].
General theoretical aspects of Eastern European cooperation in the context of continental integration processes were considered by O. Bilorus [2] and О. Bulatova [3].After the creation of the «Lublin triangle», there is a certain increase in interest in this problem.So, P.A. Goble [4] and J. Bornio [5] analyzed the significance of the «Lublin triangle» for the economic development of its member countries.A number of aspects of the institutional prerequisites for the creation of this alliance [6] and a comparative analysis of the national business cultures of its founding countries have been considered [7].The first works have appeared, in which, based on general thorough studies of the creation of transport and logistics clusters in Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(70), 2022 Ukraine [8; 9], these aspects are being studied with a projection on the countries of the Central-Eastern subregion [10].The issue of the design and technological potential of railway engineering enterprises of Ukraine in the context of opportunities for the development of cooperation between the countries of the «Lublin triangle» has been updated [11; 12].
The aim of the article is a generalized analysis of the economic and resource potential and substantiation of the prospects for cooperation between Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine in the transport and logistics sphere, with subsequent submission of relevant proposals to the state authorities of Ukraine and European institutions.
The informational and analytical basis of the study was made up of the authors' additions according to the Project of the Ministry of Higher Education and Science of the Republic of Poland «Inicjatywa doskonałości -uczelnia badawcza» (topics «Lublin triangle»: foundations of the economic development of the post-war reorganization of Europe in the XXI century» and «Theory and practice of comparative analysis of entrepreneurs (on the example of Poland and Ukraine», April -October 2022) The statement of basic materials.In the context of understanding the economic and resource potential of the «Lublin triangle» alliance as a whole and its individual participating countries, we will present the corresponding main macroeconomic indicators (after the start of a full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war of this kind, an objective analysis due to the lack of official statistical data may be limited to 2021 only).In order to ensure the maximum possible impartiality, we will undertake the corresponding analysis with a projection on the indicators of the European Union (Table 1).Ukraine occupies the largest area (61.5%) in the «Lublin triangle».Its area within the borders recognized by the world community is 603,549 km 2 .The second place in terms of area is occupied by Poland (31.9%), and the third place by Lithuania.As well as areas, these countries are in the first, second, and third positions in the same order and terms of population.
The picture is quite different for other macroeconomic indicators.In absolute terms, Poland has the highest gross domestic product (GDP), while Lithuania has the lowest.However, when calculating the relative most important indicator -GDP per capita -at the end of 2021 Lithuania with 20 thousand US dollars per person was in the first position, Poland in the second, Ukraine in the third.
Comparing these indicators for 2021 with the indicators for the European Union as a whole, we note that the specific weight of the countries of the «Lublin triangle» by area and population is 23,18% and 18,96% correspondingly similar to indicators of the EU.At the same time, the share of Poland, Ukraine, and Lithuania in the total GDP of the European Union is 5,27%.GDP per capita calculated by us for the countries of the «Lublin triangle» at the end of 2021 is 3.6 times less than for the European Union as a whole.
Analyzing the volume of GDP from 2004, when Poland and Lithuania became full members of the European Union, to 2021, we can note that the countries of the «Lublin triangle» currently do not have a significant influence on this indicator of the European Union.The largest share was recorded just in 2021 -5,27% [13].
An objective analysis and comparison of the entire set of institutional, economic, and natural factors allow us to conclude that Poland is a kind of «locomotive» for the development of the «Lublin triangle».At the same time, this should not in any way ignore the interests of Lithuania and Ukraine.Moreover, in certain areas of economic, social and political development, the leader may and should be either Lithuania or Ukraine, since they have other more competitive advantages.This will also strengthen the position of the «Lublin triangle» in the system of the international division of labor.
At the same time, the fact is quite natural and logical: in the near future, Slovakia, Latvia, and Estonia can become full-fledged member countries of the «Lublin triangle» de facto (in such an expanded composition, these six countries can become members of a fairly powerful integration association in the Central-Eastern European sub-region of Europe).Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(70), 2022 However, the top priority is to strengthen cooperation between the countries of the «Lublin triangle» in its current composition without any artificial measures to expand.
As a paradigm basis for the formation of a qualitatively new role of the «Lublin triangle» on the European continent, it is advisable to lay the following predictable factors for its post-war restructuring.
1.The formation and strengthening of the Ukrainian trend (let's define it this way) in the post-war pan-European development, which can remain effective beyond the medium-term perspective after the end of the war -up to 10-15 years.
2. The formation of a new alignment in the economic and political structure of Europe, the manifestations of which, first of all, will be the increase in the competitive positions and role of Great Britain, Poland, Slovakia, the Baltic countries, and Turkey, while the competitive positions and role of Germany, France, and Italy are decreasing.
Further enhancement of the competitive advantages of the «Lublin triangle» in the system of the international division of labor and, in general, an increase in the role of the alliance in post-war Europe, in the first place, will be facilitated by such proposed tools and steps of economic regulatory policy.
First.Significant liberalization within the framework of the «Lublin triangle» of measures to stimulate spillover within the alliance as a whole of goods, services, capital, and labor (with the actual full participation in these processes of Slovakia, Latvia, and Estonia).
Second.Determination of industries and areas of priority cooperation between the member countries of the alliance and its business formations.
Based on the structure of the national economies of Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine, as well as the current situation in the world markets for goods and services, such cooperation will be most effective: in the transport and logistics sector, the agricultural business (in the unity of agriculture, processing industries, and the food industry); energy sector (together with all its types); mechanical engineering (including in the branches of the military-industrial complex); IT technologies; oil refining, oil transport, and gas transport complexes; finance.
Third.The first and most important project may be the creation of a powerful transport and logistics cluster within the framework of the «Lublin triangle» closing the operation of all types of transport in Poland, Ukraine, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia into a single logistics, commercial and service system.
The defining parameters of the proposed transport and logistics cluster (TLC) within the noted six countries of the Central and Eastern European subregion are given in Table 2.The noted predictable factors of post-war reconstruction on the European continent and measures to improve the efficiency of economic cooperation and the role of the «Lublin triangle» seem to be appropriate to take into account in the course of developing the «Marshall Plan for Ukraine».
At the same time, it seems necessary to express some remarks of a more general nature, concerning the very approach to the development and implementation of the «Marshall Plan for Ukraine» (they are fully legitimate in the context of the justification of the measures and the cooperation of the countries of the «Lublin triangle»).
First.The initial basis for the development of the «Marshall Plan for Ukraine» will be its expedient SWOT analysis with a clear identification of both strengths and weaknesses, as well as potential threats.This also applies to the proposal to transform the «Lublin triangle» into a comprehensive integration economic organization.
Second.There is reason to believe that the Ukrainian political establishment's notion of the collapse of the Russian Federation after the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war into several state entities is rather biased.In addition to a number of other factors, at a certain stage, the conditional Western world can develop and implement a system of measures aimed at preserving the Russian Federation as an integral state (in addition, it should be remembered that if according to the «Morgenthau Plan», the United States of America was supposed to essentially destroy Germany, then the «Morgenthau Plan» was aimed at its every possible restoration and strengthening [14]).
Third.In the context of the development and implementation of the «Marshall Plan for Ukraine», one should not build illusions and automatically lay down reparations from the Russian Federation as relevant articles of the recovery policy (this also applies to the implementation of the proposed proposal to create a transport and logistics cluster based on the «Lublin triangle»).It would be expedient to proceed from the absence of such legal norms and mechanisms in the world jurisprudence (as well as precedents).
Conclusions and priority tasks for further processing of the problem.Ukraine should be most interested in the transformation of the «Lublin triangle» alliance into a full-fledged multilateral integration organization (as well as in the further expansion of the alliance, first of all -in the context of the accession of Slovakia, Latvia, and Estonia).The drastic aggravation of transport and logistics problems on the European continent as a result of the Russian-Ukrainian war only confirms the relevance of creating a cluster of designated countries of the Central-Eastern subregion on the basis of the «Lublin triangle» (as well as the relevance of the alliance as a whole).
The substantiation of prospective measures regarding the establishment of the proposed transport and logistics cluster will be expedient to be carried out in the context of a systematic study of the set of issues of the «Marshall Plan for Ukraine».

Chebotarov V., Ruban М., Chebotarov Ie. Economic and Resource Potential of the «Lublin Triangle» and Prospects of Activity in the Transport and Logistics Sector
The set of security, institutional, economic, scientific-technical, and natural-technological challenges that have arisen before Ukraine as a result of the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war necessitates, in particular, the need to substantiate breakthrough measures regarding the country's subject participation in the system of the international division of labor in the conditions of post-war development.One of these particularly effective measures can be the stimulation of the transformation of the «Lublin triangle» alliance, founded by Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine, into a multilateral international integration organization (with the possible subsequent addition to the alliance of certain countries of the Central and Eastern European subregion; primarily Slovakia, Latvia and Estonia).The article provides a generalized analysis of the economic and resource potential of the «Lublin triangle» in the context of the correlation of its main macroeconomic indicators with the corresponding indicators of the European Union.The priority areas of cooperation of the founding countries of the «Lublin Triangle» are determined according to the sector.The proposal to create a transport-logistics cluster on the basis of the alliance in the composition of the specified six countries as the most effective and promising form of cooperation is justified.The essential features of such a cluster are its «embeddedness» in the pan-European network of transport corridors and transport-logistics hubs, which should cover the «junction-intersections» of passenger and cargo flows on the territory of all participating countries (initial proposals for the geographical location of hubs on the territory of six countries are given).The identification of derived institutional, organizational-economic, and technical-technological parameters of such a transportlogistics cluster is supplemented by a proposal regarding the expediency of working out the measures for its creation to be carried out in the context of the development and implementation of the «Marshall Plan for Ukraine».
Keywords: «Lublin triangle», European Union, transport and logistics cluster, transport and logistics hub, «Marshall Plan for Ukraine».
Received by the editors 09.11.2022

Table 2 Parameters of the proposed transport and logistics cluster of the countries of the Central and Eastern European subregion *
* Source: authors' own developments.Економічний вісник Донбасу № 4(70), 2022